ZAWYA
Sub-Saharan Africa growth is projected to decline to 3.3 percent in 2023 before picking up to 4.0 percent in 2024, the International Monetary Fund said in its October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report that was released on Tuesday.
The estimates are lower compared to IMF’s forecasts in July, when it said the region would expand by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. Overall, growth is seen remaining below the historical average of 4.8 percent, it said in the report.
“The projected decline reflects, in a number of cases, worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues, including, notably, in the electricity sector,” it said.
The report was released during the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank taking place in Marrakech, Morocco this week from October 9-15. This will be only the second time in Africa after a previous meeting held in Kenya in fifty years ago.
For specific countries, the IMF said in its report that growth in Nigeria is projected to decline from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023 and 3.1 percent in 2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold.
The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a result of maintenance work.
Africa’s biggest economy is reeling after the government’s removal of a fuel subsidy and foreign exchange controls which sent the naira to a record low against the dollar and sent inflation to an 18-year high.
In South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy, growth is expected to decline from 1.9 percent in 2022 to 0.9 percent in 2023, with the decline reflecting power shortages.
However, there is a 0.6 percentage point upward revision thanks to the intensity of power shortages in the second quarter of 2023 being lower than expected.
For Kenya, growth is expected to rise from 4.8% last year to 5.0% this year and 5.3% in 2024, the Fund said in its report.
The IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said Africa is set to have a third member on the International Monetary Fund’s executive board to “expand the voice” of emerging markets and developing countries.
