Egypt’s economy will grow fairly steadily over the coming three years, with inflation gradually declining from double digits and the pound weakening in the near-term, a Reuters poll showed.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to expand a median 5.5% in the fiscal year that began this month, according to a Reuters poll of 19 economists taken July 6-20, up slightly from 5.2% predicted three months ago.
The government is aiming for the same rate of 5.5%, state news agency MENA reported earlier this month. The economy grew 6.2% in the 2021/22 fiscal year that ended in June, the planning minister said earlier this month.
Economic growth is expected to ease to 4.9% in the following 2023/24 fiscal year and quicken again to 5.4% in 2024/25.
After emerging from the worst of the coronavirus slowdown, Egypt’s economy was dealt a new shock by the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as investors pulled billions of dollars out of its treasury market.
Egypt is one of the world’s top wheat importers and has suffered from rising oil and grains prices. It imported most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, two countries that also supplied a large number of tourists.
The country is one of a cluster that have sought fresh support from the International Monetary Fund.
Prices of key global commodity prices – in particular, wheat, fertilizer and oil – are now cooling, leading to the slightly higher growth projections, said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.
